El Niño winter ahead following ‘super event’ summer
By Acacia Carol, Layout Editor
It’s been a noteworthy summer for weather across Canada. From U.S. President Donald Trump saying he plans to hold Canada accountable for wildfire smoke to two “significant” EF-2 tornadoes touching down in Alberta, it’s looking like the Canadian climate is only getting warmer.
Staying awhile
This year’s ‘super’ El Niño, a climate phase where the sea surface temperatures in certain regions of the Pacific Ocean rise by 2° C or more, is partially to blame, and climate researchers have found that it’s going to last longer than initially predicted.
El Niño conditions were initially declared on June 11 by the U.S. Climate Prediction Centre. However, on July 9, the climate centre updated the diagnostic discussion to include a prediction that El Niño will continue to strengthen throughout the year.
The centre also predicts a 97 per cent chance that the conditions will continue until early spring 2027. While stronger El Niño events do not guarantee bigger weather events and climate impacts, they can make certain weather events, like thunderstorms and heatwaves, more likely to occur.
Typically, the full effects of an El Niño are recorded in the winter for Canadians. Although its conditions have been declared, the full impact of a super event won’t be felt until after December.
10 years ago, an El Niño winter made many provinces one to five degrees warmer from December to February. The most recent El Niño event was in 2023-2024, when Canada had its warmest winter on record.
Warm worldwide
From June to July, record-high heatwaves have been recorded in almost every continent. In Canada, there are currently 900 active wildfires, with 13 in Alberta, as heat makes prairie summers hotter and drier.
The United Nations weather agency forecasted an international extreme heat risk. In Calgary, temperatures will continue to stay above 20° C for the foreseeable forecast.
The City of Calgary has released a guide for staying safe during extreme heat, including a map of cooling locations in each quadrant.
