With leadership in limbo, Canadians wonder about Canada’s future |

Khaoula Choual, Contributor | 

After a nine-year-long run in office, Justin Trudeau announced his resignation as Canada’s prime minister on Jan. 6. His popularity had recently declined, leading to a significant loss of public support.

The question many Canadians have asked throughout Trudeau’s time as prime minister is, “When will he step down?” Now, with his resignation, even more questions arise about Canada’s future.

“This country deserves a real choice in the next election and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election,” said Trudeau in his resignation speech.

Duane Bratt, a political science professor at Mount Royal University (MRU) said, “The Liberal Party had suffered bad polls for well over a year and a half. They lost three key byelections at places that had been liberal strongholds. The confidence and supply agreement he had with the NDP was ripped up. There was caucus uprisings. Cabinet ministers left.”

Bratt believes the biggest blow towards the Trudeau government was on Dec. 16 when Chrystia Freeland, the finance minister, resigned in a rather critical letter directed toward Trudeau.

Since Trudeau decided to step down, it has prompted a Liberal leadership race to replace him.

There are five credible candidates running for Liberal leadership. The names in question are Former Liberal MP Ruby Dhalla, Government House Leader Karina Gould, former Liberal MP Frank Baylis, Former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland and Ex-Bank Governor of Canada and England Mark Carney. According to Aljazeera News, Freeland and Carney are the front runners of the Liberal leadership race.

“The Liberal Party of Canada is an important institution in the history of our great country and democracy. A new prime minister and leader of the Liberal party will carry its values and ideals into the next election,” Trudeau said. Since Trudeau stepped down, the Liberal Party of Canada has announced that 400,000 members have registered to vote in the next Liberal leadership election.

What does this mean for Canada?

According to BBC, while federal elections are typically held every four years when a prime minister is elected, an early election is likely to be announced.

According to NPR, an election could be called in late March 2025. Once Trudeau announced his resignation, he said Parliament would be postponed, or suspended, until March 24.

According to BBC, the opposing parties say they will immediately call for a non-confidence vote and force a new general election.

According to Our Commons, a non-confidence vote is an arrangement if a government loses a vote of confidence, they must resign or request parliament’s dissolution, leading to a general election.

What do opposing political parties say about this?

For months, the Conservative party has tried to initiate an election by introducing a non-confidence vote in the House of Commons.

According to CBC, Pierre Poilievre has stated that “nothing has changed” and that “every Liberal MP and leadership contender supported everything Trudeau did.”

Jagmeet Singh, the leader of NDP, said that “the Liberals do not deserve another chance, no matter who is the leader.”

In terms of Liberal support, Bratt believes that the polls shifted slightly. He does not believe the race is close, and that the Conservatives still have a significant lead at this time.

The carbon tax

Carney and Freeland have both taken a shot at Poilievre’s plan to “axe the tax.”

Both Canadians have demonstrated scrapping the carbon tax. According to CBC, Poilievre said, “Carney will pause the Liberal tax for a few months to get through the election.” He further said that Carney would then bring in an even bigger carbon tax.

According to The Narwhal, Poilievre argues that the carbon tax unjustly raises prices for food, shelter and utilities, and has recently begun referring to it as a self-imposed tariff.

“Pierre Poilievre had anticipated that this election would be about the carbon tax. Both Carney and Freeland appear to be moving away from the carbon tax, and they want to reframe the election as who is best able to deal with Trump,” said Bratt.

The long-standing question of tariffs

During President Donald Trump’s campaign, he said that he would impose tariffs of 25 per cent on Canada and Mexico and 10 per cent on China. Effective on Feb. 4, 2025, Trump aims to hold Mexico, Canada, and China accountable for their promises of preventing illegal immigration and preventing fentanyl and other drugs from entering the United States.

According to the Government of Canada, Canada accounts for less than one per cent of all fentanyl and illegal border crossings into the United States.

Trump has initiated a trade war with Canada, leading the federal government, provinces, and territories to begin their own countermeasures to retaliate against the American economy.

With the tariffs, that means there will be a fee for Canadian products entering the United States, which will most likely be passed on to American customers.

According to CBC, the Canadian government has threatened to impose retaliatory 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion in American goods entering Canada. The first $30 billion will be applied on Feb. 4, 2025, followed by the remaining $125 billion over the next 21 days.

Following Trudeau’s vow to strengthen border security on Monday, Trump cancelled his proposal to put tariffs on Canada for at least 30 days. Trudeau stated that 10,000 front-line personnel will be working at the border as part of a safety initiative.

The recently resigned prime minister also made several fresh promises to Trump, including appointing a new fentanyl “czar.” He also promised to designate Mexican cartels, the leading suppliers of fentanyl and other drugs in Canada and the United States, as terrorists under Canadian law.

“This is the biggest economic crisis to hit Canada since the Great Depression if these tariffs go into effect,” Bratt says. Bratt says if the tariffs go into effect within a week, hundreds of thousands of job losses are expected on both sides of the border. He also believes this is the worst position between Canada and the United States since before World War I.

O say, can you see

Since before being sworn in, Trump has constantly repeated his interest in Canada becoming the 51st state. Trump has also been linking tariffs with annexation.

According to CBC, Trump stated that he would like Canada to join the 50 states, stating that America will provide enhanced protection and military security to Canadians.

Bratt said since the tariff and “annexation of Canada,” there has been an increase in patriotism. Several provinces have been removing American alcohol from their liquor stores.

“You’re seeing grocery chains identifying Canadian products. You’re seeing the booing at the American national anthem. There has been a rise in patriotism,” said Bratt.

Canada, at the moment, is in a state of uncertainty, and growing US tariffs and concerns over potential annexation plague the population.

Khaoula Choual is a Contributor for The Reflector, 2024-2025