With the 2025 federal election, are Canadians leaving carbon tax behind? |

Bella Coco, News Editor | 

The carbon tax. We know it, we pay it and most Canadians oppose it. Like most toxic relationships, the Canadian federal carbon tax seems to take, take, take and never give. However, with the 2025 federal election looming over Canadians like a violent storm cloud—don’t lie to me, I know you’re at least a little nervous—we may say goodbye to the controversial consumer carbon tax.

The question remains: are Canadians better off without a carbon tax?

What the heck is the carbon tax anyway?

You may have heard about the carbon tax on the news, or maybe you punched your fist into the sky and cursed Justin Trudeau while paying $100 just to fill up your tank with regular gas. I drive a small hatchback and still spend upwards of $75 a tank—trust me, even as a self-proclaimed nature-lover, sometimes it’s frustrating.

If we’re going to get super technical, let me just push up my glasses and clarify that “carbon tax” is the incorrect phrasing. What you call a carbon tax is actually a carbon price. Bet you didn’t know that, did you? If you did, congratulations! You get an eco-friendly, recyclable green star. If you didn’t, you might just be a part of the 70 per cent of Canadians who don’t understand what the carbon tax is or what it costs them.

However, for the sake of the story, I’m calling it a carbon tax. Everyone else does! The Narwhal simplifies the definition of a big oil’s anti-Christ beautifully: “in short, the consumer carbon tax is meant to impose a cost on people to incentivize change.” With the climate crisis worsening by the second, the carbon tax aims to push Canadians to use more green and sustainable energy resources to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

The carbon tax applies to the lucky or saddened residents of Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, Yukon, Nunavut, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island.

A comprehensive map of Canada outlining which provinces operate with federal
carbon tax and which ones do not. Graphic by Bella Coco using mapchart.net

But wait! There’s more. With a revenue-neutral route, the majority of the money Canadians pay via a carbon tax is returned to them courtesy of the Canada carbon rebate. What your F*ck-Trudeau-conservative uncle tends to forget is that the refund isn’t tied to your actual cost. Ergo, the less gasoline you use, the more refund you can receive.

With its humble beginning in 2019, courtesy of the liberal government, the carbon tax has increased with each passing year. If the carbon tax sticks around, Canadians can expect an increase of $15 a year by 2030. For those who don’t feel like doing the math, that’s $170 per tonne.

It’s intimidating to see all of these dollar signs, big numbers and dates, but these facts aren’t meant to scare you. In fact, they’re just trying to tell the truth. Can you say the same about the big bad politicians these days?

So…does the carbon tax even work?

It’s pretty easy to see gas prices rise, watch environmentalists continue to push for sustainability in the savage wake of global warming, and say that the carbon tax does nothing but take hard-earned Canadian money.

However, shockingly so, it takes a lot more than pinching pennies to fix the generations of climate and land devastation caused by human greed.

According to IOPScience, “the majority of studies suggest that the aggregate reductions from carbon pricing on emissions are limited—generally between zero per cent and two per cent per year.”

Now, before you say, “but News Editor, you’re an eco-freak! Are you really going to spotlight the minimal environmental benefits of the carbon tax?” Slow down! You didn’t forget that we were talking about the consumer carbon tax, did you?

An independent analysis conducted by the Canadian Climate Institute suggests that industrial carbon pricing (we’re looking at you, Big Oil) is the single biggest driver of emissions reductions by 2030.

The Canadian Climate Institute suggests that industrial carbon pricing is projected to contribute “between 23 and 39 per cent (or 53 to 90 megatonnes) of avoided emissions from all policies implemented to date.”

The report also states that the consumer carbon price accounts for between 8 and 9 per cent (or 19 to 22 megatonnes) of projected emissions reductions.

In short, while the consumer carbon tax is posed as an incentive for Canadians to make “greener choices,” the industrial carbon pricing aimed at large corporations has a larger impact on reducing global emissions.

Drumroll please…are Canadians better off without a carbon tax?

In my humble opinion, I believe that along with your ex who can’t quite rip themselves from your inbox, Canada should be leaving the toxic relationship of the consumer carbon tax behind. The industrial carbon price, however, has proven itself to be a promising start to reducing carbon emissions in Canada. Companies like Shell and Chevron are to blame for the rising global carbon emissions and therefore deserve to be aggressively incentivized through carbon pricing to evaluate their unsustainable practices.

Mark Carney, a current Liberal leadership candidate, has stated that his plan would be to replace the consumer carbon tax with a reward program to push Canadians down a greener path. Essentially, Canadians who buy energy-conscious products would be eligible for a fixed dollar rebate.

However, large industrial corporations will continue to feel the harsh consequences of consistently taking from our planet and will be forced to pay (potentially increasing) carbon rebates.

Now, I don’t know about you, but I like the sound of that tune.

With the Liberal leader vote on March 9, and the federal election upcoming in the fall, only time will tell to see if Canadians will hold onto the carbon tax.

Bella Coco is the News Editor for The Reflector 2024-2025. She aims to inform the public of current events and hold officials and organizations accountable in the media. Bella’s interests include her work as a writer (fiction or nonfiction), cinema, and music of all kinds.