Smith considers early vote as UCP rides high in polls

Vlad Semeshko, Contributor

Rumours of a provincial snap election have been spreading across Alberta this fall. 

Being driven by shifting dynamics in Ottawa and the United Conservative Party’s strong showing in the polls, Premier Danielle Smith finds herself at a crossroads. People are wondering if she will seize the momentum of her popularity to renew her party’s mandate or risk waiting until conditions change.

This speculation began to gain traction in early September, with Prime Minister Mark Carney appearing reluctant to fast-track major energy projects. For Albertans as for Smith herself, this hesitation only heightened the doubt surrounding federal commitment to projects important for Alberta’s energy sector.

Smith’s capitalization on her favourable approval ratings had been suggested by political observers. 

A renewed mandate would not only reinforce her government’s position in the province but also give her greater leverage in bargaining with Ottawa over energy policy and legislation such as Bill C-69, which consistently stalls development of new pipelines.

The narrative shifted later in the month when Carney announced federal approval of five major infrastructure projects he described as “nation building.” 

These included expansions in liquified natural gas production and mining in British Columbia, a new nuclear project in Ontario, a container terminal in Quebec, and a copper mine project in Saskatchewan. 

Alberta, however, was still absent from the list. Carney told Smith that any pipeline development in our province would require involvement from a private sector developer.

Using her social media platform, Smith described this development as “great progress.”

She noted that federal recognition of Alberta’s concerns represented a step forward, but despite this, Alberta’s exclusion from this list of approved projects underlines the province’s ongoing battle to secure federal support for its energy sector, reflecting on the core of Smith’s political brand.

Premier Smith may be caught in the crossfire of a provincial snap election. Photo courtesy of unitedconservative.ca

From the day of taking office, Smith has continuously framed her government’s position as a necessary push back against Ottawa’s overreach, which has been foundational in constructing her current reputation as a defender of provincial autonomy. 

Her rhetoric often steered toward advocating for greater provincial sovereignty, which, over the years of her government, has stirred the growing discourse of separation. 

If Smith was to publicly urge a “yes vote” in a referendum on separation, there is a chance it could split the party and alienate centrist UCP voters, leaving the premier with limited room to maneuver. The challenge for Smith will be maintaining the balance of her combative stance against Ottawa with the demands for practical governance and party unity.

If Smith believes her current popularity is at its peak, requesting the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the legislature could allow her to secure a stronger mandate. 

In politics, timing is critical; calling an early election while her party is polling strongly could entrench the UCP from uncertainties yet to come out of future political battles and economic shifts.

Alberta’s role in Canada’s energy future, the balance of power between provincial and federal governments, and Smith’s own political survival all hang in the balance, but for now, Alberta is left in speculation. 

Whether Smith pulls the trigger on a fall election or chooses to wait, the stakes remain high.