Amirmohammad Bagheri, Staff Writer |
On Sept. 23, 2024, Israel launched an artillery campaign against Lebanon’s terrorist organization, Hezbollah, resulting in about 500 people dead and more than 1500 injured.
What we know so far
This marks Lebanon’s highest violence-related daily death toll since the civil war in 1990. This attack came as a response to Hezbollah’s missile strikes toward Israel through the ongoing Hamas-Israeli conflict.
Before the attack, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned the Lebanese civilians on the southern border to evacuate. Through a recorded message, Netanyahu mentioned that the war was against Hezbollah and not its civilians.
With the death toll nearing 2,000, over a million Lebanese civilians are displaced in search of shelter from the terror.
The death of Hassan Nasrallah
Five days later, on Sept. 28, Hezbollah confirmed the death of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Ruling the Iran-backed terrorist organization for more than 32 years, Nasrallah was killed after a series of airstrikes involving around 85 American-made “bunker-buster” bombs on Hezbollah’s headquarters in Lebanon’s capital, Beirut.
While its council is deciding who will succeed Nasrallah, the terrorist group confirmed its intention to continue military operations in defence of both Lebanon and Gaza.
While it is a significant setback for Hezbollah, their arsenal of missiles and artillery remains vast and their numbers large. With the death of Nasrallah, Israel could potentially follow up on its current military advantage while dismissing international complaints over civilian deaths.
Pursuing their momentum, Israel has been preparing limited ground raids aiming to target southern Hezbollah strongholds while continuing with their aerial assaults. Their stated goal as of now is to secure the northern border, providing enough safety for the displaced Israeli citizens to return to their homes.
In order for a ground invasion to take place, Israel has to maneuver through the mountainous, rocky terrain of Southern Lebanon, which imposes a significant challenge when paired with Hezbollah’s special forces unit, the Radwan Force, who have mastered fighting in such environments.
Iran’s reaction
On the first of October, Iran launched about 200 ballistic missiles toward Israeli military bases. This attack, reported to be personally ordered by the country’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was in response to Israel’s murder of Nasrallah as well as various Hamas and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders. With the help of its iron dome, network of defence arrays and U.S. military aid, a significant amount of missiles were intercepted.
Having been warned previously by U.S. intelligence, Israel was able to reduce casualties by warning its people to seek refuge in anti-bomb shelters. The only report of mortality so far has been a Palestinian man in the West Bank who was killed due to a falling missile fragment. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed damage to several air bases, administrative buildings and peripheral components but nothing of significant importance.
A few days later, Supreme Leader Khamenei led his first Friday prayer in five years, mourning the loss of Hassan Nasrallah while praising him for his work and leadership. He then went on to publicly declare that Israel would not triumph against its enemies.
Israel’s response
Although Iran’s attack was nothing short of a symbolic show of force and was carefully planned to avoid any significant escalation, Israel’s retaliation remains unpredictable.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly called the air assault a total failure. He stated, “Iran made a big mistake tonight and it will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies.”
If escalation occurs, the proxy war in the Middle East could soon transition into a direct confrontation, potentially drawing in Israel’s most powerful ally, the U.S. . While planning on its retaliation, Israel already has its hands full on the North border with Hezbollah and the East with Hamas.
Internationally, many Western countries, such as the U.S., UK and France condemned Iran’s attack and called for the parties involved to avoid further escalation. The United States president, Joe Biden, has made it clear that he wouldn’t support Israel targeting nuclear facilities, as it would heighten the tension to its maximum. Following the death of Nasrallah, the Middle East finds itself significantly closer to a full-blown direct regional war that could cause all its countries and their allies to be involved.
Amirmohammad Bagheri is a Staff Writer for The Reflector 2024-2025.
